Posts by Neil Staines

This week has been very quiet (outside of the volatility spike in crypto), but next week, as data and events are much more abundant we expect volatility and activity to pick up anew.

Last week, we discussed the upside surprise to the January inflation report in the US. We argued that, while the commentary following the release struck a hawkish tone, we are much more inclined

Last week, we discussed the broader similarities and evolutions of DM central bank policy narratives. We argued that, while the vast majority of the most recent DM central bank communications were dovish, the reaction function to continued disinflation remains one of caution

Perhaps the defining sentence in the Fed statement was, “The committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained…

Last week, we discussed the partial reversal (or pull back) in some of the dominant trends of November and December (dominated by higher rate cut pricing and duration outperformance).