Posts by Neil Staines
Inflation: Milestone or Millstone?
Last week, we discussed what we described as a milestone in the monetary policy trajectory of the Bank of England…
Read MoreCentral Banks, Elections, and Market Trends
Episode 127: This week we discuss Central Banks, Elections, and Market Trends…
Read MoreInflation and Policy Rates: One Direction?
Last week, we further discussed our long-held disagreement with the market extrapolation of both US growth and European weakness (US exceptionalism)…
Read MoreGlobal Economy & Bank Rates: What’s Next?
Episode 126: This week we discuss: 1) The Bank of England Milestone, 2) Global Economic Outlook, 3) Key Data Releases in the US.
Read MoreA Higher, Narrower, More Treacherous Path?
Last week, we questioned the clear market consensus view of US exceptionalism – at least in terms of the recent market desire to extrapolate (significant) US growth outperformance.
Read MoreCentral Banks and the Balance of Risks
Episode 125: This week we discuss: 1) Federal Reserve’s Stance, 2) Global Central Banks and Policy Shifts, 3) European Central Bank’s Rate Cutting Cycle, and 4) Bank of England’s Outlook
Read MoreConvergence Not Divergence: A Growing Asymmetry?
Last week, we discussed the concept of confidence, confidence that inflation is returning to target in the context of the restrictiveness of current monetary policy settings…
Read MoreEpisode 124: Policymakers at a complex juncture
Episode 124: The global markets saw a volatile end to the previous week, hinting at sustained volatility in the week ahead.
Read MoreEpisode 123: Markets question underlying growth
Episode 122: UK economic week in focus: employment, CPI, retail data guide rate decisions. Markets react, Fed influence noted. Global outlook adjusts.
Read MoreInflation and Growth: The Straw that Broke the Camel’s Back
With the path of monetary policy dependent on confidence – confidence that inflation is returning to target – we continue to argue that this is by default an asymmetric relationship…
Read More