Posts by Stephen Jen
The Current Level of USDJPY: Stable but Unsustainable
Stephen Jen and Joana Freire argue that USDJPY near 160 may appear stable, but is difficult to sustain. Their latest note examines Japan’s negative real rates, oil-price exposure, Ministry of Finance intervention risk, yen undervaluation and the view that the next major move in USDJPY is likely lower.
Read MoreThe Left Side of the Dollar Smile Still Curved for Now
Stephen Jen and Joana Freire examine whether the left side of the Dollar Smile remains intact, why US Treasuries still dominate global safe-haven markets, and what fiscal risks could challenge the dollar’s role.
Read MoreUS Breaking Point May be USD200 a Barrel
US Breaking Point May be USD200 a Barrel: In a recent Eurizon SLJ Capital research note, Stephen Jen and Fatih Yilmaz examine…
Read MoreChina is (Almost) Back
China is (Almost) Back: In a recent Eurizon SLJ Capital research note, Stephen Jen and Joana Freire examine China’s economic…
Read MoreMy thoughts on currencies, April 2026
Stephen Jen examines the market implications of the Iran War, arguing that the conflict may have more lasting geopolitical consequences than economic ones.
Read MoreUSD10 Trillion in Pledged FDI and the Triffin Dilemma
USD10 Trillion in Pledged FDI and the Triffin Dilemma: Stephen Jen and Joana Freire examine the implications of the large foreign direct investment pledges made to the U.S.
Read MoreMy thoughts on currencies, March 2026
Stephen Jen examines the market implications of the Iran War, describing it as a stagflationary shock that has interrupted an otherwise constructive global backdrop.
Read MoreAI and Tech Investments as Call Options
Stephen Jen and Fatih Yilmaz examine whether the surge in AI-related capital expenditure should be viewed as an investment bubble or as a rational response to a highly asymmetric opportunity.
Read MoreMy thoughts on currencies, November 2025
Stephen Jen analyses why US growth remains strong even as job creation collapses, and what this means for inflation, the Fed, and global currency dynamics.
Read MoreMy thoughts on currencies, October 2025
The year started out with stormy US policy rumours that pointed to structural changes in the world’s trade regime…
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