Posts by Stephen Jen
China’s Prospective Import Binge and Globalisation 2.0
This summary article is an extension of one of the points we made in a previous note on the idea that the Sino-US trade spat will likely…
Read MoreSome Thoughts on Mexico and the MXN
The MXN is the most undervalued currency in our valuation framework…
Read MoreThe Prospective Return of Industrial Policies
The process of globalisation will need to take a break, in light of the stresses it has imposed on…
Read MoreChinese RMB: No Step Deval, but Depreciation Nevertheless
Governor Zhou’s interview with Caixin (a financial magazine in China) on February 13, 2016, was an important communications effort by Governor Zhou, who had been silent for a few months.
Read MoreEM’s Bad Case of QE Hangover
While the dollar is not necessarily under-valued, it is under-owned.
Read MoreA Decoupled Global Economy and the Dollar
The global economy is remarkably decoupled, with the US and China out-performing…
Read MoreThe EMU Needs a Weaker EUR
In contrast to the US, which is about 80% financed by the capital markets and 20% financed by banks, the Euroland’s economy is about 20% financed by the capital markets and 80% financed by banks.
Read MoreEmerging market growth engine shifting from beta to alpha: the case of Brazil
In the past decade, the emerging market economies have essentially been…
Read MoreReaffirming Our Constructive Outlook for the Dollar
We believe that the dollar weakness seen in the last two months will likely prove to be temporary, and expect the dollar to appreciate this year, against a broad range of currencies.
Read MorePM Abe’s First Arrow Hits the Bulls-Eye
Like July 26, 2012, when Mr Draghi gave the famous Bumblebee speech, April 4, 2013, will be recorded in economic history books as another watershed in extraordinary central bank actions.
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