China
Trade dispute: a multi-step resolution
Despite the escalation in tensions between the US and China this summer and the hawkish soundbites coming from…
Read MoreChina’s slowdown will continue, despite trade truce with US
The rhetoric that has emerged subsequent to the Trump/Xi meeting in Osaka indicated…
Read MoreChina’s Decelerating Potential Growth and Theseus’ Ship
We believe China has entered a phase of declining trend growth, which is neither…
Read MoreChina’s Prospective Import Binge and Globalisation 2.0
This summary article is an extension of one of the points we made in a previous note on the idea that the Sino-US trade spat will likely…
Read MoreChinese RMB: No Step Deval, but Depreciation Nevertheless
Governor Zhou’s interview with Caixin (a financial magazine in China) on February 13, 2016, was an important communications effort by Governor Zhou, who had been silent for a few months.
Read MoreEM’s Bad Case of QE Hangover
While the dollar is not necessarily under-valued, it is under-owned.
Read MoreThe EMU Needs a Weaker EUR
In contrast to the US, which is about 80% financed by the capital markets and 20% financed by banks, the Euroland’s economy is about 20% financed by the capital markets and 80% financed by banks.
Read MoreReaffirming Our Constructive Outlook for the Dollar
We believe that the dollar weakness seen in the last two months will likely prove to be temporary, and expect the dollar to appreciate this year, against a broad range of currencies.
Read MorePM Abe’s First Arrow Hits the Bulls-Eye
Like July 26, 2012, when Mr Draghi gave the famous Bumblebee speech, April 4, 2013, will be recorded in economic history books as another watershed in extraordinary central bank actions.
Read MoreMind the Falling BRIC
A good part of the out-sized growth in many EM economies in recent years has been propelled by a massive credit and liquidity cycle…
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