Developed Markets

Last week, we discussed a number of factors, from the concentration of elections in EM (India, S, Africa and Mexico) and the significance of the data releases this week…

Last week, we discussed the announcement of the UK General Election and how political uncertainty…

Last week, we discussed the evolution of UK monetary policy expectations following on from the Bank of England decision that brought two dissents in favour…

Last week, we discussed what we described as a milestone in the monetary policy trajectory of the Bank of England…

Last week, we further discussed our long-held disagreement with the market extrapolation of both US growth and European weakness (US exceptionalism)…

Last week, we questioned the clear market consensus view of US exceptionalism – at least in terms of the recent market desire to extrapolate (significant) US growth outperformance.

Last week, we discussed the concept of confidence, confidence that inflation is returning to target in the context of the restrictiveness of current monetary policy settings…

With the path of monetary policy dependent on confidence – confidence that inflation is returning to target – we continue to argue that this is by default an asymmetric relationship…

Last week, we discussed the most recent data and commentary driving the DM monetary policy considerations and by extension the dominant macroeconomic sentiment and positioning – concentrated on the ECB and the Fed ahead of this week’s events.

In our last piece, before the Easter holiday period, we discussed the recent monetary evolution of a range of DM central banks and the critical nature of the Fed narrative against the noise and uncertainty about the interpolation or extrapolation of US growth and inflation trends.