Emerging Markets
My thoughts on currencies, May 2025
My Thoughts on Currencies: Policy-wise in the US, 2025 has so far been a year of the ‘twin deficits’…
Read MoreThe Ferguson Law and the US’ Fight for a Small Government
The Trump Administration has been fighting to alter the trajectories of the US’ twin deficits…
Read MoreAnother Avalanche Warning on the Asian Currencies
The Taiwan dollar (TWD) appreciated by 7.5 percent against the dollar over the first days of May, purportedly triggered…
Read MoreMy thoughts on currencies
In this wide-ranging note, Stephen Jen offers a two-layered view of the current macro landscape: one focused on the underlying…
Read MoreChina: RMB Bonds and Equities: 2025 Outlook
2024 indeed turned out to be a ‘glass-is-half-full’ year, thanks to the fiscal interventions by Beijing. We maintain a cautiously optimistic expectation of stronger policies from Beijing in 2025.
Read MoreA big week for data across emerging markets
Episode 134: This week it’s (still) all about Emerging markets…
Read MoreChina’s Local Government Debt
What is the role played by the local governments in China’s property eco-system, and how should investors think about the risks posed by China’s local governments as the property market weakens?
Read MoreHigh US Yields Not Likely Reflecting Sticky Inflation
In this note, we focus on the period in the mid-1970s between the two oil price and US inflation spikes.
Read MoreAn Update on the China Property Sector
China’s property sector is big, but not overwhelmingly big, compared to the cycle that Japan had in the late-1980s…
Read MoreShelter Inflation Elevated Due in Part to the Fed
US headline inflation has fallen as sharply as it had risen, but core inflation has been stubbornly sticky on the downside for the past six months
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