Emerging Markets
My thoughts on currencies, April 2026
Stephen Jen examines the market implications of the Iran War, arguing that the conflict may have more lasting geopolitical consequences than economic ones.
Read MoreMy thoughts on currencies, March 2026
Stephen Jen examines the market implications of the Iran War, describing it as a stagflationary shock that has interrupted an otherwise constructive global backdrop.
Read MoreMy thoughts on currencies, November 2025
Stephen Jen analyses why US growth remains strong even as job creation collapses, and what this means for inflation, the Fed, and global currency dynamics.
Read MoreMy thoughts on currencies, October 2025
The year started out with stormy US policy rumours that pointed to structural changes in the world’s trade regime…
Read MoreMy thoughts on currencies, September 2025
The latest edition of My Thoughts on Currencies covers the US soft landing debate, the Fed’s pivot from hawk to dove, and the Trump Administration’s preference for
Read MoreMy thoughts on currencies, May 2025
My Thoughts on Currencies: Policy-wise in the US, 2025 has so far been a year of the ‘twin deficits’…
Read MoreThe Ferguson Law and the US’ Fight for a Small Government
The Trump Administration has been fighting to alter the trajectories of the US’ twin deficits…
Read MoreAnother Avalanche Warning on the Asian Currencies
The Taiwan dollar (TWD) appreciated by 7.5 percent against the dollar over the first days of May, purportedly triggered…
Read MoreMy thoughts on currencies
In this wide-ranging note, Stephen Jen offers a two-layered view of the current macro landscape: one focused on the underlying…
Read MoreChina: RMB Bonds and Equities: 2025 Outlook
2024 indeed turned out to be a ‘glass-is-half-full’ year, thanks to the fiscal interventions by Beijing. We maintain a cautiously optimistic expectation of stronger policies from Beijing in 2025.
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