Global Macro
WSJ: Xi is ratcheting up China’s pain threshold for a long fight with Trump
In this follow-up note on the evolving US-China trade conflict, Stephen Jen provides a…
Read MoreMy thoughts on currencies
The future trajectory of the Trade War remains highly uncertain, with too many permutations for us to plan for…
Read MoreThe Risks of Export Dumping by China
As tensions between Washington and Beijing escalate, Stephen Jen and Joana Freire explore a powerful second-order consequence: the redirection of Chinese
Read MoreMy thoughts on currencies
In this wide-ranging note, Stephen Jen offers a two-layered view of the current macro landscape: one focused on the underlying…
Read MoreHas The Fed Mark-to-Market Delivered?
In eventuality, the Fed ‘out hawked the hawks’, or marked the dots to market…
Read MoreEnergy, Inflation and The (Very) Big Short!
We continue to see a soft landing as a likely outcome (although there are clearly risks in both directions – growth and inflation) and recent market reactions as oscillations around its glide path…
Read MoreMonetary Policy Formula for Success
We continue to see a soft landing as a likely outcome (although there are clearly risks in both directions – growth and inflation) and recent market reactions as oscillations around its glide path…
Read MoreJackson Hole: Game Changer or an Oscillation on the Same Glide Path?
Overall, the ECB developments were broadly as expected and, from our perspective, likely enough to stabilise the EUR…
Read MoreHas the July CPI Print Widened The Path to a Soft Landing?
it is not the UK that dominates the debate this week, but the US. And for the Federal Reserve System (Fed), the issue of communication remains at the fore…
Read MoreNevermind May, August MPR Forecasts Paint a Bleak Picture: Exaggeration or Disaster?
In the near term, UK growth is a lot further away from its respective nirvana, perhaps it really is less dangerous “with the lights out”, for a while at least!
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