Global Macro
The Ferguson Law and the US’ Fight for a Small Government
The Trump Administration has been fighting to alter the trajectories of the US’ twin deficits…
Read MoreAnother Avalanche Warning on the Asian Currencies
The Taiwan dollar (TWD) appreciated by 7.5 percent against the dollar over the first days of May, purportedly triggered…
Read MoreMade in the USA 2035
The economic rivalry between the US and China is intense partly because it is as much a technology war as a trade war.
Read MoreWSJ: Xi is ratcheting up China’s pain threshold for a long fight with Trump
In this follow-up note on the evolving US-China trade conflict, Stephen Jen provides a…
Read MoreMy thoughts on currencies
The future trajectory of the Trade War remains highly uncertain, with too many permutations for us to plan for…
Read MoreThe Risks of Export Dumping by China
As tensions between Washington and Beijing escalate, Stephen Jen and Joana Freire explore a powerful second-order consequence: the redirection of Chinese
Read MoreMy thoughts on currencies
In this wide-ranging note, Stephen Jen offers a two-layered view of the current macro landscape: one focused on the underlying…
Read MoreA Strong Core Europe = Higher Centrifugal Force
Europe’s cyclical outlook is finally brightening, driven by a decisive fiscal pivot, especially in Germany.
Read MoreHas The Fed Mark-to-Market Delivered?
In eventuality, the Fed ‘out hawked the hawks’, or marked the dots to market…
Read MoreEnergy, Inflation and The (Very) Big Short!
We continue to see a soft landing as a likely outcome (although there are clearly risks in both directions – growth and inflation) and recent market reactions as oscillations around its glide path…
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