Global Macro

I have seen analysis this week that suggest that the average equity price decline from either event-driven or cyclical recessions is in the order of magnitude of 30%, with a range of values for both the pace of the decline and subsequent rebound…

Despite the uncertainty in the near term, we remain convinced that the turn in the second derivative of inflation is both critical for sentiment and still attainable over coming months…

ECB decision and press conference were very interesting and mark a significant inflection point …

This week, there was a further hawkish pivot from the ECB. Over recent weeks we have seen a notable shift in the rhetoric of governing council members…

The important question now is whether or not markets have priced too much uncertainty, too much forward-looking negativity into equities and risk assets.

It is not just the individual battles that matter, but likely the order in which they occur will have significant implications for financial markets…

Suffice to say the near-term macro backdrop (and all the broad commentator narrative seeking to explain them) is becoming increasingly complicated!

Looking ahead to next week, it is unlikely that the Bank of Japan’s persistent, obdurate dovish stance will set a precedent…