Global Macro
Is It The End Of The NIRP As We Know It?
Perhaps the EUR vs. USD arguments have simply been lost in the acronyms from Miami to Ibiza?
Read MoreEUR: Will the Parity Party be Short Lived?
Last week we discussed the evolving financial market backdrop, as the focus continues to shift away from inflation and towards the implications of prices …
Read MoreJust as the US and Europe slow, will China’s economy accelerate?
Macro-monthly: Just as the US and Europe slow, will China’s economy accelerate?
Read MoreFrom Inflation to Recession via Monetary Tightening – Who Will Feel It Most?
In our last piece, we discussed the recent evolution of the dominant focus of financial markets – from inflation to growth…
Read MoreUS Recession: Are We Going There and, if so, What Does it Look Like?
I have seen analysis this week that suggest that the average equity price decline from either event-driven or cyclical recessions is in the order of magnitude of 30%, with a range of values for both the pace of the decline and subsequent rebound…
Read MoreUS Inflation: Has the Fed Regained Control of the Inflation Narrative?
Despite the uncertainty in the near term, we remain convinced that the turn in the second derivative of inflation is both critical for sentiment and still attainable over coming months…
Read MoreWhich dominant economic shock will fade first?
Macro-monthly: Which dominant economic shock will fade first?
Read MoreGlobal Recession: Are markets too worried, or not worried enough?
ECB decision and press conference were very interesting and mark a significant inflection point …
Read MoreHow will Central Banks React to Current Market Volatility?
This week, there was a further hawkish pivot from the ECB. Over recent weeks we have seen a notable shift in the rhetoric of governing council members…
Read MoreWhat Does a Hard Landing Look Like and Has It Already Happened?
The important question now is whether or not markets have priced too much uncertainty, too much forward-looking negativity into equities and risk assets.
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