Macro Research
My thoughts on currencies, October 2025
The year started out with stormy US policy rumours that pointed to structural changes in the world’s trade regime…
Read MoreGold: Powered by Structural Divestment from Fiat Monies
The surge in gold prices is not just about gold. In their latest note, Stephen Jen and Joana Freire argue that the rally reflects structural forces:
Read MoreFiscal Velocity and Diminishing Fiscal Effectiveness
Similar to monetary velocity, we introduce the concept of ‘fiscal velocity,’ which measures the ratios of changes in nominal GDP to nominal fiscal spending
Read MoreThe Fed’s Record on Inflation Control: Not Great
How should the Fed’s performance be judged? In their latest note, Stephen Jen and Joana Freire argue that inflation control offers a clear benchmark
Read MoreMy thoughts on currencies, September 2025
The latest edition of My Thoughts on Currencies covers the US soft landing debate, the Fed’s pivot from hawk to dove, and the Trump Administration’s preference for
Read MoreFiscal Dominance and the End of Central Bank Hyper-Power
In his latest client note, Stephen Jen warns that 2025 marks a turning point: fiscal dominance is beginning to erode the power and influence of central banks.
Read MoreThe UK is Likely Moving to the Bad Side of the Laffer Curve
The UK is Likely Moving to the Bad Side of the Laffer Curve: The UK is in a fiscal bind; we are worried: the 30-year gilts yield reached the highest level since the late-1990s
Read MoreSection 899: Don’t Take It Too Seriously
We believe analysts may be taking Section 899 too seriously. (1) The proposed Section 899 will most likely not be enacted: it is meant…
Read MoreWhy is Resurrecting Manufacturing Important for the US?
Besides bolstering national security, (1) manufacturing has a multiplier factor of around three, i.e., the overall impact of manufacturing…
Read MoreChina: Cut-throat Price War in EVs
When Chinese companies focus on a challenge, they run as fast as possible and turn the dial-up to11….
Read More