Macro Research
The Risks of Export Dumping by China
As tensions between Washington and Beijing escalate, Stephen Jen and Joana Freire explore a powerful second-order consequence: the redirection of Chinese
Read MoreWSJ: The dollar and the bond market’s ominous message for Trump
I think this editorial by Greg Ip underscores the biggest question mark in the market, besides the policy surprises: why US are bond yields not lower?
Read MoreThe Long-Awaited Dollar Correction Finally Commencing
We ceased to be dollar-positive some two years ago and stressed our bearish view on the dollar throughout H2 2024.
Read MoreSome thoughts on the US trade tariffs announced last night
There are three phases in this Trade War: (1) the US launches its ‘attack’, or retaliation for a history of unfair terms of trade; (2)…
Read MoreMy thoughts on currencies
In this wide-ranging note, Stephen Jen offers a two-layered view of the current macro landscape: one focused on the underlying…
Read MoreA Strong Core Europe = Higher Centrifugal Force
Europe’s cyclical outlook is finally brightening, driven by a decisive fiscal pivot, especially in Germany.
Read MoreA ‘MAGA SWF’: Don’t Dismiss This Idea
A ‘MAGA SWF’: Don’t Dismiss This Idea: We do not believe President Trump’s idea of a SWF (sovereign wealth fund) should be dismissed.
Read MoreA ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ on September 22, 2025?
A ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ on September 22, 2025?: Reached on September 22, 1985, the Plaza Accord was an agreement by the G5 countries to coordinate….
Read MoreEmerging Markets H2 Roadmap 2023
We remain convinced that it is a watershed moment for the asset class.
Read MoreJust as the US and Europe slow, will China’s economy accelerate?
Macro-monthly: Just as the US and Europe slow, will China’s economy accelerate?
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