of the week ahead

Transcript

Matt Jones

Welcome to "The Long & Short of the Week Ahead", a production of Eurizon SLJ Capital that takes a look at the macro-economic themes of the week ahead and has been recorded for professional investors.

My name is Matt Jones, Head of Distribution for Eurizon SLJ Capital, and I'm joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager.

Welcome back, Neil. It's great to have you here with us again.

Neil Staines

Thank you very much Matt. It's great to be here.

Matt Jones

So, as we look into next week, it almost feels as though June is being a little bit kind to us with perhaps a little bit of a, an aggregate quieter week ahead of what will probably be a stronger finish towards the end of June. But looking into next week, what are you going to have your eye on?

Neil Staines

Absolutely. Yeah. Thanks Matt, as you say. So another complex week for global financial markets and the global macro narrative. This week ahead of a slightly quieter week next week. We saw Republicans and Democrats finally reaching a compromise to facilitate a lifting of the US debt ceiling, at least, until after the presidential elections at the end of next year. And this has removed a significant risk premium at the front end of US rate markets leaving us to focus on data and upcoming events, a few of which we will be keeping a close eye on next week.

Firstly, China will continue to be an acute focus for financial markets, both from a geopolitical perspective as Sino US relations continue to follow an uncertain path and from an economic perspective. Now, recent data has been disappointing as the demand recovery has failed to keep up the reopening momentum and manufacturing momentum earlier in the year. The weak data has however, brought with its incrementally smaller reactions from the bond market as market participants look for government stimulus to support aggregate demand. This is particularly significant in the global macroeconomic terms as it is very unusual for policy cycles to be so out of sync between the US and China. China looking likely to increase stimulus further as the US policy appears to be approaching the peak of its tightening. Interesting potential connotations from financial markets. And we'll be watching closely for developments on all fronts.

Secondly, we get central bank action from Canada and Australia. In both instances, policy makers are expected to keep rates unchanged, but markets have recently grown nervous about the prospects for further tightening. As demand growth remains stronger than expected and prices still hang it around above Target. Commentary about expected growth and inflation paths will be an acute focus and potentially a barometer for a wide range of central banks who currently face uncomfortable growth inflation dynamics themselves, despite historically fast monetary tightening. RBA on Tuesday, Bank of Canada on Wednesday, likely interesting focal points.

And then lastly, and perhaps most importantly, our focus will be on the US after jobs and manufacturing data last week. Next week brings services ISM, key as services account for around three quarters of the US economy to add to the mix of data upon which the most recent Fed meeting applied its dependence. We discuss our views on the US rate and inflation trajectory further in this week's blog, but it has been very clear going into the blackout window that the Fed speakers are inferring a pause in policy in June as the inflation and growth trajectory suggests Fed policy is very close to, if not already sufficiently restrictive. Any further weakness in the services ISM, especially in prices and or new orders, will have significant implications for US policy, the curve and the dollar, and from our perspective another interesting week for financial markets.

Matt Jones

Thank you, Neil. Another interesting week ahead indeed. In the meantime, we have what promises to be perhaps in the UK a weekend with some good weather. I'm reluctant to say the start of the summer because I don't want to talk it up too much, but what have you got your eye on this weekend?

Neil Staines

Absolutely, yes, Matt. Another wonderful weather forecast for the weekend in the UK should mean plenty of action in the England Island Cricket test, England looking comfortable with bat and ball ahead of a fast approaching Ashes series. As Saturday it's the Manchester themed FA cup final, both sets of fans traveling to sunny London for the event. French Open Tennis from Roland Garros continues. Cameron Nori, the sole Brit left in the tournament. Formula One, moves to Spain, hopefully a slightly drier affair in Barcelona than it was in Monaco. And I'll be on the hunt once again for a barbecue. And looking forward to Wednesday's huge Europa Conference League final.

Matt Jones

Fantastic. Certainly, an action packed weekend. I'm looking forward to the weather and good luck for Wednesday. Thank you for joining us once again and outlining your thoughts on the week ahead. I look forward to catching up with you again in two weeks time.

Thank you for joining us for "The Long and Short of the Week Ahead". Further insights are available on our website eurizonsljcapital.com/insights. We look forward to you joining us again next week for more insights into macro-economic events and "The Long and Short of the Week Ahead".

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