Welcome to "The Long & Short of the Week Ahead", a production of Eurizon SLJ Capital that takes a look at the macro-economic themes of the week ahead and has been recorded for professional investors.
My name is Matt, Head of Distribution for Eurizon SLJ Capital, and I'm joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager.
Welcome back, Neil. It's great to have you here with us again.
Thank you very much Matt. It's great to be here.
So, looking into next week perhaps a little bit of a shorter week with Thanksgiving in the US on Thursday, but still an awful lot to pack in. So perhaps you can talk through what you're going to have your eye on in the week ahead.
Absolutely. Yeah. Thanks very much, Matt. It's been another complex week for financial markets with the release of the heavily anticipated CPI print in the US. Alongside retail sales. Now the data, as we discussed further in this week's blog gave further, if incremental evidence of continued moderation of demand and continued disinflation, both themes that we feel will continue, albeit without a more sinister or acute falling growth, at least for now in the near term. Now, as the end of the year is now fast approaching indeed next business week in the U. S. and abruptly midway through, as you say due to the Thanksgiving holidays. However, while markets may have half an eye on the finish line to 2023, there are still a number of themes likely to play out and a few things we've got our eye on next week.
Firstly, as global financial markets focus their attention and increasingly capital on the prospect of a peak policy setting and the trough of duration in the U. S. In Japan, the emphasis is in the opposite direction. Now, despite a disappointing Q3 GDP data released last week in Japan which will likely be countered in no small part by the significant new fiscal stimulus from the Kishida government, the trend for prices and the supply demand balance is increasingly inconsistent with the foot to the floor, easing settings of Japanese monetary policy. Next Friday, it is likely that we get another above target core inflation print and another nail in the coffin for arguments to continue easing patiently. The Bank of Japan has diverted attention towards the spring wage negotiations, but for us, is a topside CPI miss this Friday would be no less material and no less significant for the Yen.
Secondly, more broadly, there will continue to be a big focus on the global economy. With data such as the German IFO for November and the global flash PMI data for November on Friday and Thursday, respectively. And central bank focus from the RBA minutes, continuing to outline the rationale behind their most recent rate hike. Even if that is erring in the opposite direction to most DM central banks at the moment and hints about future policy criteria. And also live policy decision from the Riksbank, where currency is likely to form a significant part of that debate. Again, in the blog, we emphasize our view that Q3 was the peak of global growth divergence at US over the rest of the world. And we'll be watching the next week's data very closely to gauge progress in this regard.
Then lastly, but still most dominantly in global financial markets, focus will shift back to the U. S. The Thanksgiving shortened week in the U. S. will mean that we get Fed minutes on a Tuesday, as opposed to the usual Wednesday, where markets will be forensically examining the November 1st minutes for any discernible indication of a shift in the balance of growth and inflation risks in the U. S. Against that backdrop, and a potentially very long week in the U. S., we expect the U. S. curve and the dollar to dominate sentiment and price action. For us, there is still lots to play for this year, even if some may look to slow down for the start of the holiday season.
Fantastic. In the meantime, we have the weekend. What do you have your eye on?
Absolutely, we do indeed. In sports, there's plenty to go on this weekend. In football, it's international break with European Championship qualifiers. England, Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland, all in action there. Formula One heads to Vegas. All the excitement of Vegas undermined in the near term by potholes. So it's not just the UK. But for me, it's all about the cricket. India have been immaculate in the tournament so far, unbeaten all the way through, and by rights, they should already be crowned champions, but Australia will have something to say about that on Sunday. Either way, it'll be an incredible atmosphere at the Narendra Modi stadium and a perfect way to spend a rainy Sunday here in the UK.
Thank you so much for joining us and for outlining your thoughts on the week ahead. I look forward to catching up with you again soon.
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