Welcome to "The Long & Short of the Week Ahead", a production of Eurizon SLJ Capital that takes a look at the macro-economic themes of the week ahead and has been recorded for professional investors.
My name is Matt, Head of Distribution for Eurizon SLJ Capital, and I'm joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager.
Welcome back, Neil. It's great to have you here with us again.
Thank you very much Matt. It's great to be here.
So looking into next week, I think we remain data dependent. What are you going to have your eye on?
Absolutely. That's absolutely right, Matt. Yes. It's been another complex week for financial markets as the impact of the hawkish pause from the Fed continues to ruminate and the oil market bid adds to a nervous market repricing of short and medium term inflation and growth projections without pushback from Fed speaker reference or first tier data for which we must wait until next week. If anything, there has been a slightly negative bias to the high frequency data since the Fed, but employment and inflation data are likely needed to move the needle on U.S. Growth expectations the U.S. curve and likely the dollar with that in mind there are a few key focal points we'll be looking for next week.
Firstly next week kicks off with a Japan Tankan report for Q3 now set against a distinct period of underperformance from Asian currencies at the feet of the dollar, the Tankan will be very closely watched for further signs of underlying growth stability. Now, Japanese monetary and in many respects, fiscal policy is still set at maximal accommodation or maximum stimulus levels and further signs of an economy standing on its own two feet with wage growth continuing to improve and inflation above target. Albeit yet not sustainably from the eyes of the Bank of Japan may have significant implications for the Yen, especially if, as we suspect, growth and inflation in the U. S. disappoint in the new higher expectations that come in the form of the Fed DOTs. With China out on an unseasonably long holiday next week, the data may have a bigger impact in likely thinner than usual liquidity.
Secondly, Europe will be a big focus. Now, as we discussed further in this week's blog growth expectations in the Eurozone continue to deteriorate at the very least relative to the U.S. excessively, so in our view. Next week, we'll give another look at some of the underlying data, the unemployment rate and retail sales activity at the Eurozone level on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. German trade and factory orders data, and the contextual discussion from President Lagarde and Chief Economist, Philip Lane will all be closely watched next week against concerns over the high level macro trajectory. The more idiosyncratic issues facing the German economic model and their policy thinking at the heart of the Eurozone economy an important focus for the next week.
Then finally, it's a huge week for U.S. data after further broad disappointment in the flash PMIs across Europe, we get the release of the U.S. equivalent manufacturing on Monday and services on Wednesday. Services print closer to the 50 expansion contraction line will be the first question mark against the Feds new found economic optimism. Now the big focus of the week, however, will be the labor market. We get JOLTs, ADP and challenger surveys on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. They'll be closely watched, but essentially in the context of the all important non farm payroll report on Friday. Markets are expecting the unemployment rate to tick lower after a significant jump in August. Disappointment in this regard could have asymmetric connotations with the August print already at the Fed's new optimistic expectation for the end of the year. No space for downside surprise. No excuse not to be paying attention, a big week for US and European data.
A big week indeed. Thank you for sharing your thoughts. in the meantime, we have the weekend. So what have you got your eye on?
Absolutely. Another action packed weekend. Football after the E. F. L. Cup and ties in midweek, we're back to the premiership this weekend. Villa versus Brighton, Tottenham, Liverpool and Fulham Chelsea on Monday. The pick of the bunch. Formula One has a weekend off ahead of Qatar on the eighth. The World Cup rugby continues, as the group stages enter the closing games over the next two weeks New Zealand versus Italy and Australia look for a win versus Portugal this weekend. But for me, this weekend is all about the golf, the Ryder Cup from Rome, Europe versus the USA over three days of match play golf, always some interesting battles and certainly enough to keep me focused through the weekend on the race to 14 and a half points. The U.S. and European data over the weekend that they will be looking for will be those all important rider cut points.
You just can't get away from the data. Can you certainly can't. Thank you so much for joining us and for outlining your thoughts on the week ahead. I look forward to catching up with you again soon.
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