of the week ahead

Transcript

Matt Jones

Welcome to "The Long & Short of the Week Ahead", a production of Eurizon SLJ Capital that takes a look at the macro-economic themes of the week ahead and has been recorded for professional investors.

My name is Matt Jones, Head of Distribution for Eurizon SLJ Capital, and I'm joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager.

Welcome back, Neil. It's great to have you here with us again.

Neil Staines

Thank you very much Matt. It's great to be here.

Matt Jones

So, many of the elements that we discussed last week still dominate, especially as we look into next week, and we have additional data releases that are going to be in focus. So perhaps you can look into next week and tell us what you're going to be focusing on.

Neil Staines

Absolutely. Yeah. Thanks Matt. As you say, the US data continues to be the dominant force in financial markets at the moment. Last week we discussed the impact of the January employment report and its seasonal distortions. This week US CPI and retail sales have added to the hawkish rate repricing in the US. Now, next week, it is likely that the US rate repricing conundrum continues to dominate. But there are a couple of other things we'll be keeping a close eye out for. In Europe next week we get both ZEW and IFO indices for Europe. Analysts expect a further improvement in both sentiment indices. But both likely boosted by the continued improvement in activity and outlook driven by the China reopening, much of which has yet to feed through into the data and the surprising collapse in the natural gas price as a function of a mild winter and expansion of alternative energy sources. The energy price decline and by extension the far greater residual gas storage volumes translates into a huge amount of euros that won't need to be sold for dollars to buy gas this year. And along with the FX hedging cost implications for global bond holdings favoring Europe, there's another factor that keep us bullish EURUSD this year and something we discussed further in the blog this week.

Secondly amid the debate on monetary policy at the moment and higher rate paths. Next week we'll see a strong focus on the UK and Australia. Now in the U K where this week, Bank of England, chief Economist highlighted the loosening of the labor market and the need to slow the policy increment to prevent over tightening house price data will be a key focus to gauge the impact on the interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy. In Australia, we get RBA minutes from the February meeting following two consecutive weak employment reports in Australia that have led concern at the RBA this week. The RBNZ, are also expected to hike 50 basis points next week to add to this complexity.

And then lastly, we get the FOMC minutes for the February policy decision. Now, after the recent strong data market sentiment has swung back wildly in the direction of higher rates and higher terminal rates. However, while some Fed speakers retain a hawkish narrative this week, we are more inclined to see recent data as anomalous to the underlying trend and distorted by pandemic seasonality. Furthermore, inflation while disappointing analysts this week is already significantly below the Fed December forecast, and thus it is not clear that the fed dots will be revised significantly higher as a function. and as markets now expect. We expect the inflation growth debate to remain dominant next week and the details of the FOMC meeting to be forensically examined, plenty to focus on this week.

Matt Jones

Fantastic. A lot to be looking out for in the week ahead, as always. In the meantime, it's the weekend, perhaps slightly quieter, although still some notable things to be watching out for. So what are you going to have your eye on?

Neil Staines

Absolutely. Yeah, we get a break from Six Nations this week. A chance to spread our focus a little more widely. A full premiership schedule this week with Liverpool, Newcastle, and Spurs, West Ham, the pick of the action. Half an eye on Tiger Woods's performance at the Genesis invitation after a competitive start birding the final three holes on the first day now, but my attention, will probably be mostly drawn to the very un-sociably timed cricket test ,New Zealand versus England, the day night format, making tactics, concentration, and even eyesight, more of a factor in the proceedings. All great entertainment for the weekend.

Matt Jones

Absolutely a fascinating format, but also not too long to wait for the return of the rugby as well. Thank you very much for joining us and for outlining your thoughts on the week ahead. I look forward to catching up with you again next week.

Thank you for joining us for "The Long and Short of the Week Ahead". Further insights are available on our website eurizonsljcapital.com/insights. We look forward to you joining us again next week for more insights into macro-economic events and "The Long and Short of the Week Ahead".

Disclosure

This communication is issued by Eurizon SLJ Capital Limited (“ESLJ”), a private limited company registered in England (company number: 09775525) having its registered office at 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA, United Kingdom. ESLJ is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 736926). This communication is treated as a marketing communication intended for professional investors only and is provided only for information purposes. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, with respect to any investment strategy or financial instruments, or the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this communication, save to the extent agreed in any written contract entered into between ESLJ and the recipient, and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. Views are accurate as at the time of publication. Opinions expressed by individuals are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of ESLJ or any of its affiliates. The value of any investment may change and an investor may not get back the original amount invested. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. This communication may not be reproduced, redistributed or copied in whole or in part for any purpose. It may not be distributed in any jurisdiction where its distribution may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this communication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions.

ESLJ-170223-P1

Subscribe to our insights

If you are interested in our content, please sign up below and we will deliver Eurizon SLJ insights right to your inbox.

    I consent to my data being collected and stored for the purposes of providing me information regarding my enquiry and related services. If you have any questions about your data please contact us at research@eurizonslj.com

    Envelopes on a wood background

    Our Research

    Our written research products aim to provide unique and orthogonal insights on key global economic and policy issues in a timely fashion.

    research page photo