In a recent article by Bloomberg’s Chris Anstey, Stephen Jen, CEO of Eurizon SLJ Capital, is cited on Europe’s increasingly pivotal role in the evolving dynamics of global trade. As U.S.–China tariff tensions escalate, the focus is shifting to Europe—both as a potential beneficiary of redirected exports and as a pressure point in the broader strategic realignment.

The article draws on recent analysis from Stephen Jen and Joana Freire, highlighting how a shift in Chinese trade patterns could significantly alter Europe’s trade position:

“A ‘realistic’ assumption might be that one-third of the goods bound for the US gets redirected, Jen and Freire wrote. That would involve a 70% explosion in China's surplus with the EU, to some $420 billion.”

This scenario, the article notes, raises questions over how Europe might respond—especially given its existing sensitivities to trade imbalances and the risk of retaliatory action.

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