Posts by Fatih Yilmaz
US Breaking Point May be USD200 a Barrel
US Breaking Point May be USD200 a Barrel: In a recent Eurizon SLJ Capital research note, Stephen Jen and Fatih Yilmaz examine…
Read MoreAI and Tech Investments as Call Options
Stephen Jen and Fatih Yilmaz examine whether the surge in AI-related capital expenditure should be viewed as an investment bubble or as a rational response to a highly asymmetric opportunity.
Read MoreFiscal Velocity and Diminishing Fiscal Effectiveness
Similar to monetary velocity, we introduce the concept of ‘fiscal velocity,’ which measures the ratios of changes in nominal GDP to nominal fiscal spending
Read MoreA Strong Core Europe = Higher Centrifugal Force
Europe’s cyclical outlook is finally brightening, driven by a decisive fiscal pivot, especially in Germany.
Read MoreChinese RMB’s International Currency Status
Extract from our “Chinese RMB’s International Currency Status” research paper, published 20th May 2021…
Read MoreA Higher US ‘NAIRU’?
Extract from our “A Higher US ‘NAIRU’?” research paper, published 12th July 2021…
Read MoreA Decoupled Global Economy and the Dollar
The global economy is remarkably decoupled, with the US and China out-performing…
Read MoreThe EMU Needs a Weaker EUR
In contrast to the US, which is about 80% financed by the capital markets and 20% financed by banks, the Euroland’s economy is about 20% financed by the capital markets and 80% financed by banks.
Read MoreReaffirming Our Constructive Outlook for the Dollar
We believe that the dollar weakness seen in the last two months will likely prove to be temporary, and expect the dollar to appreciate this year, against a broad range of currencies.
Read MoreMind the Falling BRIC
A good part of the out-sized growth in many EM economies in recent years has been propelled by a massive credit and liquidity cycle…
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