Developed Markets
My thoughts on currencies, May 2025
My Thoughts on Currencies: Policy-wise in the US, 2025 has so far been a year of the ‘twin deficits’…
Read MoreThe Ferguson Law and the US’ Fight for a Small Government
The Trump Administration has been fighting to alter the trajectories of the US’ twin deficits…
Read MoreAnother Avalanche Warning on the Asian Currencies
The Taiwan dollar (TWD) appreciated by 7.5 percent against the dollar over the first days of May, purportedly triggered…
Read MoreMade in the USA 2035
The economic rivalry between the US and China is intense partly because it is as much a technology war as a trade war.
Read MoreWSJ: Xi is ratcheting up China’s pain threshold for a long fight with Trump
In this follow-up note on the evolving US-China trade conflict, Stephen Jen provides a…
Read MoreMy thoughts on currencies
The future trajectory of the Trade War remains highly uncertain, with too many permutations for us to plan for…
Read MoreThe Risks of Export Dumping by China
As tensions between Washington and Beijing escalate, Stephen Jen and Joana Freire explore a powerful second-order consequence: the redirection of Chinese
Read MoreThe Long-Awaited Dollar Correction Finally Commencing
We ceased to be dollar-positive some two years ago and stressed our bearish view on the dollar throughout H2 2024.
Read MoreMy thoughts on currencies
In this wide-ranging note, Stephen Jen offers a two-layered view of the current macro landscape: one focused on the underlying…
Read MoreA ‘MAGA SWF’: Don’t Dismiss This Idea
A ‘MAGA SWF’: Don’t Dismiss This Idea: We do not believe President Trump’s idea of a SWF (sovereign wealth fund) should be dismissed.
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