Developed Markets
My thoughts on currencies
The future trajectory of the Trade War remains highly uncertain, with too many permutations for us to plan for…
Read MoreThe Risks of Export Dumping by China
As tensions between Washington and Beijing escalate, Stephen Jen and Joana Freire explore a powerful second-order consequence: the redirection of Chinese
Read MoreThe Long-Awaited Dollar Correction Finally Commencing
We ceased to be dollar-positive some two years ago and stressed our bearish view on the dollar throughout H2 2024.
Read MoreMy thoughts on currencies
In this wide-ranging note, Stephen Jen offers a two-layered view of the current macro landscape: one focused on the underlying…
Read MoreA Strong Core Europe = Higher Centrifugal Force
Europe’s cyclical outlook is finally brightening, driven by a decisive fiscal pivot, especially in Germany.
Read MoreA ‘MAGA SWF’: Don’t Dismiss This Idea
A ‘MAGA SWF’: Don’t Dismiss This Idea: We do not believe President Trump’s idea of a SWF (sovereign wealth fund) should be dismissed.
Read MoreA ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ on September 22, 2025?
A ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ on September 22, 2025?: Reached on September 22, 1985, the Plaza Accord was an agreement by the G5 countries to coordinate….
Read MoreThe Puzzle: Short-Term Volatility But Clarity Around the Medium-Term Path?
In our last piece, we discussed the evolution of activity in the real economy, both in the UK following the most recent (arguably dovish) MPC…
Read MoreUS Growth and Inflation Paths Make Confidence a Preference
In our last piece, we discussed the evolution of activity in the real economy, both in the UK following the most recent (arguably dovish) MPC…
Read MoreAre US Rate Cuts Just Round the Corner?
Last week, we discussed the most recent monetary update from the Bank of England. The MPC voted to leave rates unchanged at 5.25%…
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