Welcome to "The Long & Short of the Week Ahead", a production of Eurizon SLJ Capital that takes a look at the macro-economic themes of the week ahead and has been recorded for professional investors.
My name is Matt Jones, Head of Distribution for Eurizon SLJ Capital, and I'm joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager.
Welcome back, Neil, it's great to have you here with us again.
Thank you very much Matt. It's great to be here.
So it feels as though each week is this almost perpetual tug of war between sort of growth and inflation expectations. But as we look into the week ahead, what in particular you're going to be looking at?
Yeah, absolutely. Thanks, Matt. Another week, as you say, of complexity and uncertainty in financial markets, as global geopolitics, economic data and policy. Both monetary and fiscal evolutions dictate sentiment in relation to the dominant delicate balance, as you say the risks between inflation and growth.
This week's focus starts with the UK. Following on from this week very sobering forecasts from the Bank of England, alongside its historic 50 basis point hike this week, we discussed the Bank of England, our thoughts and implications for the current UK backdrop further in this week's blog, suffice to say that markets will likely be in search of some solace, or good news to counter the dismal prophecies from the August Bank of England's monetary policy report. Interestingly, the calendar effects for this week's Q2 GDP print highlight a drag from the jubilee celebrations this year, taking the overall figure modestly into negative territory, now only for the offsetting impact to boost the figures for Q3, markets may hope for outperformance in Q2 to keep the run of positive GDP prints going until Q4; the start of the Bank of England's forecast of five consecutive quarters of contraction. However, there are a lot of negatives baked into the Bank of England forecasts and thus, some scope for positive surprises going forward. They don't include any fiscal policy response for one and indeed, if you were about to be crowned as leader of the Conservative Party, and thus Prime Minister such dire forecasts are likely a very attractive benchmark by which to gauge your tenure.
Secondly, there was much focus in the Bank of England press conference this week on the external factors, most notably the impact of the Russia situation on gas prices, and thus the energy complex and CPI basket. Geopolitical developments continue to be a key global uncertainty and a key driver of sentiment. Thus, Russia and increasingly the China Taiwan situation after US House Leader Pelosi's provocative actions this week, will continue to be closely watched. Within this sphere, China growth dynamics and the knock on effect of global oil prices will continue to attract the attention of global markets.
And then lastly, we complete the circle, if you will, with the US inflation print on Wednesday. And now we've argued for some time now that the US inflation backdrop is very clearly split into demand and supply factors a notion clearly referenced by San Francisco Fed' Daley this week, putting the contributions at 50% demand and 50% supply. Now, we would perhaps argue a bigger supply contribution. But nonetheless, it's clear that supply driven price base effects are distorting inflation metrics, and as those base effects change over time, inflation can fall back. Now Wednesday's print is widely expected to show a drop in the headline inflation print from 9.1% in June to 8.8% in July, albeit with a core inflation ticking up a touch. This change in the second derivative is likely a very important milestone in the current global inflation dynamic, especially if it is confirmed by the August reading ahead of the next FOMC. It's too early to confidently declare a top but alongside Friday's University of Michigan medium term inflation expectations survey, the data points constitute essential viewing for next week.
Thank you, Neil. A lot as ever to be looking out for the week ahead and perhaps some light at the end of the tunnel there. Well, thank you once again for joining us and outlining your thoughts on the week ahead. I very much look forward to catching up with you again next week.
Thank you for joining us for "The Long and Short of the Week Ahead". Further insights are available on our website eurizonsljcapital.com/insights. We look forward to you joining us again next week for more insights into macro-economic events and "The Long and Short of the Week Ahead".
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