Welcome to "The Long & Short of the Week Ahead", a production of Eurizon SLJ Capital that takes a look at the macro-economic themes of the week ahead and has been recorded for professional investors.
My name is Matt Jones, Head of Distribution for Eurizon SLJ Capital, and I'm joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager.
Welcome back, Neil, it's great to have you here with us again.
Thank you very much Matt. It's great to be here.
Looking into next week, there's there's not really a lot of data to focus on. So I think it's fair to say it's going to be more around the importance of the underlying narrative. So perhaps you can just talk us through what you're going to be watching out for in the week ahead.
Absolutely. Yeah. Thanks, Matt. You know, as we discussed in this week's blog, the complex geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop continues to generate a heightened baseline volatility across all asset classes. And indeed, this combination is also leading to distorted and unreliable relationships between asset classes in an unusual backdrop with no safe haven asset and unreliable risk hedges. Now against this backdrop, there are a few things that grabbed our attention this week outside of tea and cucumber sandwiches with the Queen on Thursday and Friday.
Firstly, Last week saw a further formalization of the ECB monetary intentions. In an unusual step, Lagarde chose to lay the case for a normalization of monetary policy based essentially on the change of underlying of the underlying inflation dynamic now, relative to pre COVID, in the form of the ECB blog. Now, she emphasized the fact that pre COVID Persistent demand weakness as a function of the global financial crisis and also the eurozone crisis, structural downward pressure on inflation through globalization, and digitalization, and also falling inflation expectations have been replaced now, b y a series of shots to demand and supply to energy and food and post pandemic stimulus that have pushed inflation to record highs fueled by unemployment at record lows. Now, Lagarde argues that with inflation having shifted so notably higher, it's appropriate for nominal variables to adjust, and that that that isn't tightening, rather than leaving settings unchanged, would constitute an easing. So therefore, you know, against this backdrop, we're going to closely watch the Eurozone inflation print this this coming week. The headline is expected to rise to 7.7% year on year for May, and 3.5% on the core. However, while the data is important, it's likely that this is the decision to end the asset purchase program very early in Q3 and thus facilitating a 25 basis point hike in both July and September the June meeting. Therefore, we'll all but formalize this sequencing, unless we get a significant downside surprise on this week's inflation.
Secondly, it's that time again, although it takes place on a China and UK holiday. The US employment report or Non Farm Payroll data will be the key data focus of the week. Markets are expecting a renewed tick lower in the unemployment rate to 3.5%, with headline gains of just over 300,000 and an average hourly earnings gain at a very healthy 5.2% year on year. And one further key focus will be on the participation rate this week. Last month the unemployment rate remained unchanged as the participation rate rose. And a further sustained improvement in participation could vastly improve the odds of a US soft landing, with pressures being taken out of wage growth through an increased supply of labor, not through job cuts driven by restrictive Fed policy.
And then lastly, we'll be closely watching sentiment and focus in financial markets. over recent weeks the threat of inflation as removed the nominal safe haven asset US Treasuries and in doing so, and against a backdrop of very complex macroeconomic environment, capital flows and waves of risk aversion have driven a sharply higher vol across all asset classes now against what will likely be a significantly reduced participation next week, we'll be watching the evolution of risk sentiment and positioning very closely. Indeed, we wouldn't rule out a more risk positive backdrop to proceedings as a result. Either way, sentiment remains a key market driver, and we're watching out for that very closely.
Thank you, Neil, in spite of the the plethora of holidays around the world, still plenty to be keeping an eye on in the week ahead. In the meantime, it's the weekend. So what have you got your eye on?
Absolutely. And there's a string of glamorous events this weekend to catch our attention. In the continuation of the French Open Tennis, and then on Saturday evening, this year's Champions League final between Liverpool and Real Madrid, that certainly has all the ingredients for another classic final. And then finally on Sunday, it's the flagship of the Formula One season as the team's race around the streets of Monte Carlo for the Monaco Grand Prix. Now, nothing in F1 compares to the noise of the cars exiting the tunnel, and around the marina in Monaco, a real actual Marina not like the fake Marina that they set up in Miami, and now with Mercedes finding some speed last weekend we'll look forward to seeing Lewis Hamilton back in there.
Absolutely. A lot to be looking forward to on the weekend as well. Thank you, Neil, for joining us once again and outlining your thoughts on the week ahead. Next week, of course, we have a Jubilee hiatus. But we'll be back on the 10th of June, for more thoughts on the long and short of the week ahead.
Thank you for joining us for "The Long and Short of the Week Ahead". Further insights are available on our website eurizonsljcapital.com/insights. We look forward to you joining us again next week for more insights into macro-economic events and "The Long and Short of the Week Ahead".
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