Thanks Matt. The past week has been dominated by the US employment report and inflation data for April and the narrative that surrounded that. So, the bar has been set pretty high for data significance. But equally, the comparison outside the US is critical in disentangling the interactions between global supply chains and bottlenecks and on a more local level, or regionalised level, the demand dynamics. This is a core emphasis of our view on on a differentiated global pandemic recovery.

So firstly, we're looking at the data from China.The suite of data for April is out on Monday: retail sales, industrial production, capital investment and even the unemployment report. There've been some recent signs of mild moderation in the China growth momentum of late, so the data will be watched very keenly - not just on the basis of global supply chains, commodity demand and bottlenecks, but also China led this differentiated recovery. So we'll be watching for any signs of peaking growth, something that equity markets have started somewhat to imply with the recent sell off, or more negative trading, recently. On the demand side, China is a hugely important export market for many economies, not just across Asia, but also most notably in Europe with Germany, so will be important for broader sustainable growth prospects and expectations there of.

Secondly, we'll be looking into the UK. We have the unemployment report for March, although we're expecting the rate to remain at 4.9% - although we do get jobless claims data, which may be a little foresight into April - and looking very closely really at how this interacts with the end of furlough and the beginning of reopening of the economy. The employment situation or labour market dynamics are going to be quite important for the UK recovery going forward. On Wednesday, we have the inflation data itself. Headline is expected to rise from 0.7 in March to 1.4. After we've seen the big jump in the inflation data in the US last week, I think that we can suggest the potential for a surprise to the topsides core at 1.3. So we're below target at the moment in the UK, but certainly on the reopening we can suggest that perhaps there are some some demand pressures and supply constraints driving prices to the topside.

And then Friday, retail sales. These numbers are very strong, not just on a sequential basis, but on a year in year basis. We're looking at 4.5% month on month. That is somewhere in the region of 37% annualised growth so, from the low point to the high point, just shows the pace of the rebound on an annualised basis in the UK. Now, the Bank of England Governor already said in the week that we are already seeing the economy recovering strongly and we expect these data prints to highlight that further and given that, we see a continued positive backdrop for sterling.

As of Monday, the pubs and restaurants and other entertainment venues can open some capacity indoors. So despite some of the spectacular scenes that we've seen of late with Brits having outdoor fry ups in the snow and gathering under very insufficient umbrellas for pints, once we have some indoor capacity and/or a bit of sunshine, then I really think that the service sector -and more broadly the demand recovery - can start to pick up.

On the employment note - and on the sunshine note - Thursday also sees the first post job seeker job keeper employment report in Australia. So the end of removal of some of the fiscal stimulus or support that we've seen for the labour market in Australia and see how that affects the recovery dynamic. It will not just be market participants that will be keenly watching that, but also policy makers around the globe to see the implications there.

Finally, on Friday, we move back to Europe; we get the first look of the PMI data for May. So far at least, the European recovery has been driven by expectations where the hard data has lagged behind to a certain degree. So the May PMI data will give us a further insight into this, into the robustness, if you like, of those expectations. Given some signs of the moderation in China, some signs of the commodity price surges and supply bottlenecks on manufacturing in particular, I think this is a key metric.

Lastly, touching on the inflation debate, we remain of the view that inflation is a global phenomenon, and continued global output gaps suggests that inflation will ultimately be transitory. However, it is likely to feel more troubling ex ante, and in the midst of this acute supply demand mismatch, we continue to see some emphasis to be placed on this inflation. And while higher yield curves driven by this inflation breakevens and expectations shouldn't be cause for concern in the US, where nominal growth likely more than compensates for this, ahead of the ECB [European Central Bank] in June, tighter financial conditions with a demand led inflation shortfall still remaining may mean that this tempers the hawkishness of the ECB expectations where the market currently is. So certainly in relation to peripheral yields and the periphery, where tighter yields amongst deteriorated credit dynamics are potentially something of a concern to the ECB. So forward-looking from that is where we are.