Welcome to "The Long & Short of the Week Ahead", a production of Eurizon SLJ Capital that takes a look at the macro-economic themes of the week ahead and has been recorded for professional investors.
My name is Matt Jones, Head of Distribution for Eurizon SLJ Capital, and I'm joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager.
Welcome back Neil, it's great to have you here with us again.
Thank you very much Matt. It's great to be here.
Whilst the focus of our podcast last week was was simple in essence, when we were talking about the focus of Central Banks, I think it's fair to say that this week, the focus is more complex. Perhaps you could share your thoughts on the week ahead.
Yeah, absolutely. Thanks, Matt. I think that's, that's absolutely the case. Richard Feynman famously once said, If you can't explain something in simple terms, then you don't understand it. So suffice to say, the current global macro backdrop remains very complicated. But as always, there are three key areas of focus for us next week. So firstly, inflation will be back in focus, not that there's been out of focus of late, but we do get a number of CPI readings from around the globe. While in EM for now topside risks remain, for the first time in many months the risks in DM appear to be to the downside; lower headline and core inflation prints in April relative to March.
Now, the Netherlands print will be notable. It's the highest in the eurozone and following Spain this week, as analysts expect a lower print for the first time since a very brief dip in the February print. But all eyes will really be on the US on Wednesday afternoon. headline inflation is expected to fall back to 8.1% in April from 8.5% in March, and the core rate to 6.1% from 6.5%. Hardly a great reversal so far, but potentially a significant milestone. We've discussed previously, the potential implications of a change in the second derivative on inflation expectations, and thus bond market pricing and wider risk sentiment. Now Powell referred this week, to the fact that the Fed see some signs of inflation topping out, caveating that with the fact that it will take more than some signs to alter the near term reaction function of the Fed. But this week, despite a more balanced Fed narrative, and the likely imposition of a 50 basis point speed limit on the Fed normalization pace, markets continue to price further inflation risk premium and belly in the long end of the curve. So the inflation print this week will likely be a key focus in calming or otherwise of this market sentiment, potentially even signaling the start of a market focused transition, if you will, away from inflation and towards growth, albeit with no less uncertainty in the short term. On Thursday, we get the UK GDP for Q1 and analysts are expecting 1% quarter on quarter that's 8.9% growth year on year, and on the face of it still very positive. Indeed, this week's Bank of England's monetary policy report maintained it's fully a growth forecast at 3.75%. But this is only a small part of the underlying UK economic narrative. The striking headline from the Bank of England was the Q4 and full year inflation forecast of above 10%. And the delayed inflation peak in the UK due to the government's energy price caps. All in the negative terms of trade shock to the UK is forecast to have a significant impact on the growth in the second half of this year. With a shock it's a real incomes the biggest on record, perhaps barr one year in the history. Indeed, the Bank of England highlight the current energy price shock, and that is more than double any single year of that of the 70s, synonymous with its own oil crisis. Interestingly, the situation eases at the far end of the forecast horizon, with the economy growing again and inflation forecast to be below target in 2024. Conveniently, perhaps, for the government in light of recent local election results this week, that will occur just ahead of the next scheduled general election.
And then lastly, next week, we continue to have a close eye on market sentiment. Now recent dynamic has seen inflation concerns drive yields higher and thus risk sentiment, perhaps most apparent in the equity prices lower. It's therefore very important to monitor market sentiment not just in relation to potential signs of a change in the second derivative of US inflation. We may we may witness this next week, but also in terms of the central bank rhetoric on inflation, and increasingly on growth. But then lastly, in light of comments from the Bank of France governing council member at the end of last week, that too weaker Euro could jeopardize the ECB is price stability objective will be very attentive to any further official reference to the level of the euro. We've highlighted on previous occasions this negative connotation of a lower euro on imported goods inflation as an additional drag on consumer incomes at a time of high inflation and the rising concerns within the Governing Council in that regard. Now, a more concerted push back against dollar strength in Europe would likely have significant consequences. And thus, that will be another key focus for next week.
Thank you, Neil. A complex backdrop, indeed, and some eye watering numbers on the inflation side. In the meantime, we have the weekend. I certainly know what I'm going to be watching over the weekend. I suspect it might be the same for you. Perhaps you can share your thoughts on the weekend
Absolutely. Yeah. Thanks, Matt. First up, we do have a full premiership schedule. Liverpool vs Spurs, probably the pick of the bunch. Although there's some big relegation battle games for Burnley, Leeds and Everton and West Ham after European disappointment in the week, will be battling for a place in the competition next year through league qualification. But as you suggest, as you intimate Matthew, the you know, the big event of the week is likely Formula One's inaugural Miami Grand Prix at the Hard Rock stadium complex in Miami, I think, you know, certainly promises to be a spectacular affair. With fake Marina included and opening ceremony. Nonetheless. Hamilton hopes and the Mercedes upgrades will give him a better chance of competing with Red Bull and Ferrari. But all in all, it promises to be quite the spectacular. And while markets remain disappointing and complicated, it does look as if at least the weather is going to be more promising this weekend.
Absolutely, perhaps some respite. Well, thank you once again for joining us and we look forward to catching up with you and hearing your thoughts next week.
Thank you for joining us for "The Long and Short of the Week Ahead". Further insights are available on our website eurizonsljcapital.com/insights. We look forward to you joining us again next week for more insights into macro-economic events and "The Long and Short of the Week Ahead".
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