of the week ahead

Transcript

Matt Jones

Welcome to "The Long & Short of the Week Ahead", a production of Eurizon SLJ Capital that takes a look at the macro-economic themes of the week ahead and has been recorded for professional investors.

My name is Matt Jones, Head of Distribution for Eurizon SLJ Capital, and I'm joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager.

Welcome, Neil.

Neil Staines

Hi Matt.

Matt Jones

So looking looking to the week ahead, I think it's fair to say that the the upcoming week is a little bit light, shall we say, on major sort of dates releases. So when that happens, as a portfolio manager, where did you mind go and what are you going to be thinking about during the week?

Neil Staines

Absolutely. As we move into the last week of the month, the macro backdrop remains largely unchanged. At a more micro level, there are a number of key uncertainties or complexities. And usually, we would focus on the upcoming events or data releases, but with limited top tier data, as you say, this week, our focus will be on the evolution of what we see as the key themes that are driving that sentiment, positioning in the current juncture. You know, all are broadly linked to the global recovery story, but there are some specific areas of focus. So firstly, the debate around inflation is going to be core. It's a core value of ours that the current inflation jump in the US is driven by a combination of a number of technical factors or base effects, particularly around the oil and commodity space. There have been some distortions on annual comparisons between where we are now with the demand surge on reopening and where we were a year ago when the global economy was shut down. There's also a timing mismatch, obviously, between the return of aggregate demand and aggregate supply. You know, it's very different between consumer spending decisions at this stage in the recovery where the consumer is much more flexible, much more and much freer to turn on the demand now. Whereas from a business investment decision perspective there may be longer lead times and this might generate some of the bottlenecks. Now, finally, there is an element of fiscal stimulus supporting this demand. The excess demand element is a factor that also plays through into into higher prices. We expect as supply comes back into line, prices would dissipate. So we do look at inflation as being transitory, especially as excess demand in the US begins to draw in more exports would deteriorate the current account deficit. But, you know, I think that there is also should damp inflationary pressures through the utilization of a global economic slack, of which there is plenty. So we'll be looking at this commodity price action and and the commentary around it to assess the evolution of the broader supply and demand and supply demand dynamic.

Secondly, on the growth front, we remain very positive overall on the global economy and on the economic momentum at the moment. One key driver of that, one key debate of that in the US, but also partly in the U.K. and potentially others to come, is this imbalance or apparent imbalance between the supply of labor and the demand for labor. It's very clear that we are seeing a surge in job vacancies despite the fact there were high levels of headline unemployment. So we'll be looking for any new information on the causes. There are a number of factors underlying this potentially lack of childcare and a heightened caution or a lack of confidence surrounding the virus. There's some stimulus elements. Is there a perspective in the US that you are better off staying at home under the very generous unemployment insurance schemes than you would be in employment? And it's also potentially a bit of a skills mismatch. So in what is likely a globally K shaped recovery, some of the industry sectors or areas of the economy that are hardest hit may be the areas where there are a number of high level of labor supply that may need reskilling. So, you know, ultimately that will be paying very close attention to this debate with a view to evaluating this resolution, the resolution of the the labor market mismatch. But we do remain positive about the progress towards full employment and that the US will lead this very much, what could be a level of full employment, which is higher than it was going into pre pandemic. And therefore, you know, you may at some point start to see wage inflation start to filter through, but we think that's a way off just yet.

And lastly, on differentiation, I mean, you know, this has been a core theme of ours throughout, not necessarily a central theme of the market, but we think it should be. We retain the view that the US compounds and enhances its growth differential with the rest of G10 in the coming recovery years. The current focus has been very much on the rebound growth, but we think this is likely a dishonest comparison in some respects. Certainly, if you look at an economy that's going from 100 percent closed to 100 percent open would essentially have infinite, instantaneous growth. But we don't think that's the correct way to look at things. We think, rather, the debate should be about post pandemic, sustainable levels of growth. And on that basis, we see the US as a sharp outperformer. In fact, the IMF said recently that the US is the only economy that by 2022 will be beyond the level of growth that was expected to attain without the impact of covid. So I think that is quite, quite important. You know, and then by extension, a key to this debate is that the relative implications of the timing and extent of monetary normalization. And we think the market has got a little bit ahead of itself in expecting some of these kind of technical updates to the to the growth narrative as a function of reopening being an impact or a driver of near-term changes to monetary policy. And we think that's getting a little ahead of itself. So ultimately, we will be looking closely, watching the data and the debate around inflation, around growth and essentially around differentiation against what is a slightly more complex near-term backdrop and the current dynamic. But we remain positive overall.

Matt Jones

Thank you, Neil. So certainly still lots to be thinking about and looking forward to in the week ahead. In the meantime, I suppose, unlike next week, there's a packed weekend. I certainly know what I've got my eye on. What about you? What are you looking forward?

Neil Staines

Absolutely. I'm actually going to a restaurant indoors this weekend, so I'll be the first time I have had food that hasn't been prepared in my own kitchen for many, many months, which is very exciting. Beyond that, it's a big weekend for sports. So, you know, we've got the final week of the Premier League football season and we've got the champions, we've got the relegation spots. But it's really about the battle for European qualification and that Champions League spot that's up for grabs. Formula One is also back this weekend. You know, all the history and glamor of the Monaco Grand Prix comes back. Interestingly, Ferrari are looking quick around the track in practice this weekend. So that might put a block on the one two Verstappen Hamilton that we've seen for most of the season. And finally, the culmination of the US Open from Kiawah Island, I think a wonderful, wonderful tournament, monster of a golf course and almost 8,000 yards. That'll be very much something I'm looking forward to settling down to on Sunday evening.

Matt Jones

Absolutely. Lots to look forward to and obviously hope you enjoy your meal. Thank you again, Neil, for taking time to talk with us today. We look forward to catching up to you again next week.

Neil Staines

Likewise, thank you very much Matt.

Matt Jones

Thank you for joining us for "The Long and Short of the Week Ahead". Further insights are available on our website eurizonsljcapital.com/insights. We look forward to you joining us again next week for more insights into macro-economic events and "The Long and Short of the Week Ahead".

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This communication is issued by Eurizon SLJ Capital Limited (“ESLJ”), a private limited company registered in England (company number: 09775525) having its registered office at 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA, United Kingdom. ESLJ is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 736926). This communication is treated as a marketing communication intended for professional investors only and is provided only for information purposes. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, with respect to any investment strategy or financial instruments, or the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this communication, save to the extent agreed in any written contract entered into between ESLJ and the recipient, and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. Views are accurate as at the time of publication. Opinions expressed by individuals are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of ESLJ or any of its affiliates. The value of any investment may change and an investor may not get back the original amount invested. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. This communication may not be reproduced, redistributed or copied in whole or in part for any purpose. It may not be distributed in any jurisdiction where its distribution may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this communication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions.

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