I think this is going to be the last in the current series for a couple of weeks as you have been allowed some some time off for good behaviour.

Yes, absolutely Matt, thank you. I think it's worth starting with the fact that despite the unseasonally inclement weather, there is a real air of summer in global financial markets at the moment; participation, trading activity appears pretty low; liquidity and stability, therefore, are a bit more of a focus than usual. But there are a number of events in particular interest for us over the next week.

Firstly, on global trade - and, by extension, the global economic recovery will be assessed, will be back in focus. China data for July kicks off the week and this data will be watched very closely. The export data more China relevant, perhaps; domestic economy focussed and particularly pertinent due to rising covid concerns in China. The import data may be a core focus for exporting nations, especially across Europe, and on that front we get the German trade data that follows on Monday and also the ZEW on Tuesday. Now, a second successive decline in the ZEW may set sentiment shifting towards European growth moderation, following on from the emphasis that we've seen in that regard in the US. Now, we expect the ultimate focus to shift towards equilibrium or sustainable growth rates, and in that regard, we see the US at the near term.

Staying with the US, Wednesday we see us inflation data. Now, it's not that long ago that inflation was the No.1 concern of global financial markets, but it seems recently growth concerns have kind of quashed those fears, even if we see some of these concerns as misplaced. For us, this sequential decline back towards a higher equilibrium rate should be a positive, given the nature of this mini cycle from covid, which was intentionally imposed. Now inflation is back on the radar next week. Yellen this week has been suggestive of the fact that inflation will fall back to the Fed's target by the year end. Now, we presume that she means the Fed's new inflation target, whereby that means somewhat above 2% for some time. Ironically, perhaps, the natural result of US inflation decline might be an increased focus on inflation shortfalls elsewhere: the most notable of which being Europe.

And on Thursday, the emphasis comes back to the UK with Q2 GDP. Following this week's Bank of England [meeting], the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) forecast suggests somewhere around 5% for Q2. And indeed, the Bank of England economic narrative was much more encouraging; inflation now at 4% and falling back towards target in the forecast horizon, with growth at 7.25% this year and an increased forecast of 6% next. That's with unemployment forecasts lowered both this year and next. So the backdrop seems quite positive from the Bank of England's perspective. And just more broadly, a quick thought on the Bank of England, we have mentioned in our thoughts over recent weeks about the importance of the sequencing of monetary policy for the Bank of England. It does seem now that the Bank of England has lowered the rate minimum that it would like to see before reducing the stock of QE (quantitative easing) assets, and that is from 0.5 to 1.5, as it was previously. This is likely a function of the fact that negative rates, which are now essentially an effective part of the toolkit, lower the effective lower bound. The Bank of England have suggested that they may actively seek to sell bonds once the policy rate gets to 1%. I think overall what that means is, you know, we are starting to see the UK emerge as a front runner or a possible test case, if you will, in terms of global monetary policy, not just in terms of the covid reopening response.