of the week ahead

Transcript

Matt Jones

Welcome to "The Long & Short of the Week Ahead", a production of Eurizon SLJ Capital that takes a look at the macro-economic themes of the week ahead and has been recorded for professional investors.

My name is Matt Jones, Head of Distribution for Eurizon SLJ Capital, and I'm joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager.

Welcome back, Neil. It's great to have you here with us again.

Neil Staines

Thanks very much Matt, great to be here.

Matt Jones

Over the last week, we have obviously seen a heightened geopolitical risk, especially in light of the tragic events that are evolving on the continent. We've seen heightened volatility in markets. As you look into the week ahead and as you're thinking about this as a portfolio manager; what are you seeing from a data perspective and how central banks are reacting to the current environment, from an inflation and growth perspective?

Neil Staines

Thank you very much. Next week is a huge week for financial markets on a number of levels encompassing all of those points. From a geopolitical standpoint, volatility remains extremely high. The situation in Ukraine is clearly front of mind for a geostrategic and importantly humanitarian perspective, with global ramifications through energy and commodity supplies. Now, huge uncertainties remain, particularly for energy or commodity dependent countries, and those in close proximity to events as they unfold. And over the course of next week, the intensification of financial market tensions is the core focus of markets, but it's not clear the risks are only in a negative direction. However, the issue itself likely means a more intense focus for market participants throughout the week.

But we also get a raft of data, as you say, to compete for the headlines next week. Retail sales data from Europe, Australia, the broader Asia for January are likely to give an indication of the rebound in consumer activity after a very weak December globally, as Omicron curtailed movement and demand. Now we've seen the US data for January that was very strong. We've seen the data for the UK that was quite strong, although that's still lower when you combine December and January. So it will be a key week really to kind of gauge Europe and Asia and how they fit into the spectrum of growth at this stage.

We also get China PMI data for February and manufacturing and Services ISM for the U.S. as well as the all important U.S. employment report for February at the end of the week.

Now, after a period where first inflation and by extension a heightened debate around the monetary reaction function and then Ukraine situation have dominated the headlines. Market sentiment and therefore price action that we expect with data next week to go towards a renewed focus back on growth, not just growth, but what we see as wide, if not widely near term growth differentials, at least in terms of the long term equilibrium level of growth.

And then finally, it's also important to note that behind the uncertainties of volatility of recent geopolitics and rate curve dynamics, the global economic backdrop is more encouraging from our perspective. Certainly a reduced COVID impact and therefore reduced risk premia, particularly important in the EM space, and this continues to support our more glass half full view of the global economy.

And so lastly, bringing this all together geopolitics, inflation, risk pricing and growth. Next week will also bring our attention back to central bank reaction functions with the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Canada meetings, as well as the ECB minutes from the January meeting and Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual testimony to Congress. We get a broad commentary on relative rate paths. For us there are two important factors at the current juncture that drive Central Bank's ability to hike rates, given the current uncertainty. Firstly the level of accommodation relative to pre-pandemic levels and secondly, and perhaps most significantly, as we discuss in this week's blog, the amount of underlying growth that can absorb the heightened inflation at the moment. So for now, the U.S. and likely therefore the dollar standouts on both fronts, but I think it's going to be a very interesting week, next week for us.

Matt Jones

Thank you, Neil. An interesting week indeed, ahead in the markets. In the meantime, we have the weekend, I feel I don't really need to ask what you have got your eye on over the weekend because I know it's something that you have been looking forward to for a number of weeks now. So I'll hand over to you, if you can, just outline what are you going to be keeping your eye on over the weekend?

Neil Staines

Absolutely, thanks Matt you kind of pre-empted it there, I'm sure. We do have a full premiership calendar and of course, Chelsea versus Liverpool in the EFL Cup final, the first domestic silverware of the season. But for me, this weekend, it is all about Six Nations Rugby. It's Scotland verus France kicking off on Saturday afternoon and then the big game of the weekend, England versus Wales on Saturday afternoon topped off with the Ireland verus Italy. It's all wide open for this year's tournament and it should be quite fun and I, for one, am very much looking forward to it.

Matt Jones

Absolutely. I think it's going to be an action packed weekend and I am also very much looking forward to the rugby indeed. Well, Neil, thank you once again for joining us and for outlining your thoughts on the week ahead. We look forward to catching up with you again next week.

Thank you for joining us for "The Long and Short of the Week Ahead". Further insights are available on our website eurizonsljcapital.com/insights. We look forward to you joining us again next week for more insights into macro-economic events and "The Long and Short of the Week Ahead".

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