of the week ahead

Transcript

Matt Jones

Welcome to "The Long & Short of the Week Ahead", a production of Eurizon SLJ Capital that takes a look at the macro-economic themes of the week ahead and has been recorded for professional investors.

My name is Matt Jones, Head of Distribution for Eurizon SLJ Capital, and I'm joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager.

Welcome back, Neil. Great to have you here with us again.

Neil Staines

Thanks very much Matt, great to be here.

Matt Jones

So, I think there are three key themes, as we look into next week; inflation, growth and credit. Perhaps you can share your thoughts as you look into the week ahead.

Neil Staines

Absolutely. Yeah, thanks Matt. I mean, you know, last week was a very volatile week for global financial markets as policymakers, analysts and traders adjusted to a more acute persistent inflation threat. However, as we discussed in this week's blog, it's not simply a case of adjusting rate policy to stamp out the threat of inflation, at least not in all jurisdictions. But the differentials between underlying components of inflation are also key, especially when we factor in different growth and credit dynamics, which essentially govern the likely success and or unwanted side effects of tighter monetary policy settings. So first, you start in the UK, where the data gives more of an insight into two of these factors, inflation and growth.

Now on Tuesday, we get the employment report for December and January, where markets will be looking at progress towards maximum employment and any extension of rising wage inflation trends. On Wednesday, we get the CPI, for January and market see relative stability here in the expectations for the data, but upside surprises in Europe and the US but January will keep participants on their toes.

Then on Friday, we get retail sales for January, an important gauge of the implications of rising inflation and then other factors, such as higher National Insurance contributions on household consumption in the UK. A key balancing act that will keep policy uncertainty very high and the Bank of England very attentive. Then secondly, in the Eurozone, last week markets rushed to reprice the European yield curves as a function of the perceived hawkish pivot from the ECB. However, as we discuss in the blog, the ECB, in sharp contrast to the US, have to contend with inflation that is almost entirely driven by supply side factors, and that is predominantly energy prices. Now as you know president Lagarde alluded to at the end of this week, tightening policy against this backdrop will not address the supply side issues, but may be detrimental to growth and employment, as is precisely the trade off we've highlighted in relation to the eurozone. That with some, if not all, of the periphery facing higher debt loads post COVID, negative connotations for future growth disproportionately impact peripheral credit spreads and thus the transmission of monetary policy.

So next week we get German ZEW for February and Eurozone Q4 GDP growth, and that may well bring market focus, back towards the implications for growth and business sentiment and of higher implied or actual Eurozone rates. However, we will also be looking at how peripheral spreads react to this after a significant widening this week, and that will also play a part in shaping the ECB normalisation prospects and the implications for market.

And then lastly, in the US, the Fed is really at the epicentre of the inflation debate in developed markets and global markets, we've stated many times our view that the Fed are behind the curve on inflation. And last week's headline CPI print a seven and a half percent. I mean, it was eye popping when it rose above six percent. We are running out of adjectives now at above seven and a half now. And importantly, a core inflation around six percent and this has intensified the debate about the Fed's reaction function, a big differentiator being that there is significant excess demand in the U.S., not just supply side factors leading the inflation. Markets are now pricing around 175 basis points of hikes this year, with tightening expected at pretty much every meeting in 2022. And that is almost as fast on the way up as it was on the way down in the face of the global pandemic. This week's FOMC minutes for January may shine a light on the inflation discomfort for the Fed and thus the intensity of the reaction function. Some commentators are even contemplating the prospect of an intra meeting hike.

Anyway, either way, the Fed rate powerful inflation response will continue to be the core driver in financial markets across asset classes and a key focus for us.

Matt Jones

Thank you Neil, a lot to be looking at next week. In the meantime, though, an action packed weekend. I think we are spoilt for choice really from around the world. Where are you going to focus on first?

Neil Staines

Yeah, you are absolutely right. The Premiership action is back again with a couple of potential banana skins with Burnley at Liverpool and Manchester in Norwich. That might be interesting. Chelsea also in the Club World Cup final against Brazilian team Palmeiras and that might draw your attention. In the Olympics, there is a medal hope for Team GB Laura Deas in the skeleton, but there is also action from snowboarding, ski jumping and speed skating to keep the attention at the Olympics.

There is obviously the rugby after the disappointments of last weekend Wales against Scotland. France against Ireland should be the game of the weekend and then it's England's chance to redeem themselves in Rome, playing Italy. Finally, rugby's American cousin, American football, it is the Super Bowl this weekend! Super Bowl Sunday, very similar to the rugby, with just a touch more pizzazz and a lot more body armour.

Matt Jones

Yes, always a spectacular affair and definitely worth watching. Well, Neil, thank you so much for joining us again and outlining you thoughts on the week ahead. As ever, we look forward to catching up with you again next week.

Thank you for joining us for "The Long and Short of the Week Ahead". Further insights are available on our website eurizonsljcapital.com/insights. We look forward to you joining us again next week for more insights into macro-economic events and "The Long and Short of the Week Ahead".

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