Transcript
Matt Jones
Welcome to Idea Jeneration with Stephen Jen, a podcast series offering insights into long-term themes within global markets.
This is a production of Eurizon SLJ Capital, and has been recorded for professional investors. My name is Matt Jones, Head of Distribution for Eurizon SLJ Capital.
In this episode, we ask Stephen Jen the question, is the term 'emerging markets' now outdated?
Stephen Jen
I wonder if the term 'emerging markets' is badly outdated - because of China. China is now very big. In terms of size, the nature of its economy, its economic performance, the performances of its companies and policies, China stands out; China is so different from the rest of EM. So the main point here is really that emerging markets ought not be considered in the aggregate, as we have been doing the last 10, 20 years - but we should carve out China.
You're familiar with the term 'BRIC', which was very popular, I would say 10, 20 years ago, but these days you don't hear that term being mentioned anymore. It just quietly faded. And there's a good reason. In the last decade, the other three economies in the term BRIC - Brazil, Russia and India - have collectively generated a growth rate, cumulative growth rate, in their nominal dollar GDP of zero. In the whole decade, their nominal dollar GDP has not increased.
The reality is that if you split off China from emerging markets, you get a completely different picture. My point here is that the beta the rest of EM has exhibited relative to the GDP of China has declined in the last decade. And my guess is that with the pandemic shock, this idea of a K-shaped recovery in the world, across sectors, should be applied to the EM countries as well, because their industrial makeup is completely different.
Matt Jones
Further information can be found within the episode description, and more insights are available at eurizonsljcapital.com/insights.
The views expressed within this podcast were accurate as at the time of publication. Opinions expressed by the speakers are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of Eurizon SLJ Capital Limited, Eurizon Capital SGR or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group.
Source
Audio taken from the Capitalmarket.events web conference Emerging Market Perspectives, recorded on 21st April 2021
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